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What have we learnt from this preseason?

I apologize for not finishing this in one hit, but it isn't easy to get on the computer around here at the moment. It is now complete - I hope it can inspire some thoughts:


The preseason is over for another year and the real stuff is about to begin. We've played 3 'practice matches' against fair dinkum opponents. So:
[1]   What have we learnt about our chances for 2014?
[2]   Do we look to have improved significantly?
[3]   Has our recruiting and player development improved?
I am normally pretty positive. I like to find the good things and look forward hoping for the best. However, I am really struggling with that at this point. Maybe I need to have my antidepressants.... < :) >

Why am I not confident?
(1)   Trend towards preseason performances corresponding to season's performances:
In many past seasons our preseason has shown little about how we are going to play in the main games. In 1995, for example, we lost every single preseason game and went on to win the premiership. We did the same thing in 1987 and 1979.
Similarly, most Malthouse coached teams have not done well in preseasons.
That would bode well, would it not?
However, this trend has not quite worked out in the few years. Since our Flags, back in the Pagan Days, our preseason and our season have been very similar: if we play poorly in the practice matches we usually start poorly and struggled to overcome that. We have seriously disappointed and lost to teams we shouldn't have.
Since Ratts became coach, we have ended up doing a lot less 'experimenting' and ended up playing combinations well below our best in rounds 1 and 2.
It may not be mathematically significant yet, but it is getting there.

This preseason looks to be following the trail of our recent ones. We haven't had a lot of guys coming through. We have had injuries and slow recoveries from surgery that have really meant we've started well below our best.

(2)   List Management:
Our list does not appear to have improved significantly.
Firstly, of our current regulars, a number of really important players are well behind in their recovery and look seriously underdone. Judd will miss at least the first 3 games. Carrots has been missing and looks to miss more. Hendo may or may not be fit enough, but he is well underdone. Kreuzer is a long way from his best form.
We may not have huge numbers of injuries, but our present ones are particularly strategic. Few of guys who have been playing look like they can cover these players.
Secondly, our depth appears to be of concern. Our depth was once really important. We could introduce guys who would fill in adequately until our other 'better' players came back.
We certainly don't appear to have that depth at the moment.
The last time we appeared to was when Robinson and Garlett got their first game against Richmond. We looked very weak on paper, but we surprised Richmond and all of our new players had good nights.
Thirdly, we have barely introduced any new players in early rounds since then and have little success from the few we did. Certainly our team sheet appears to be quite predictable in early rounds.
At the moment we appear to be really short on good quality players around the packs, in the key defence and forward roles.

(3)   Centre Square:
We have played 12 competitive quarters so far this year and have won in the centre square for only 3 of them. And those 3 were the first 3 against North Melbourne.
Although our clearance numbers do not appear too bad, we are really get smashed in the centre square. Against Adelaide, for example, we won1 centre clearance compared to every 4 the Crows won.
Basically, that is the difference between winning and losing in itself. We found it difficult to come back because we couldn't get the ball to our forwards in any approaching a reasonable manner.
Against the Dogs, they brought on Liberatore at half time and had him get 16 possessions for the 3rd term alone. He had more centre clearances for the quarter than our entire team did.
If we keep going like that we have no chance at all: our forwards don't get any reasonable opportunity.
I don't see where our clearances are going to come from either, with Judd and McLean suffering injuries.
It also make we wonder about our ruck division, as we are winning a reasonable number of hit outs, but not getting any advantage out of them.

(4)   Lack of Intensity:
Granted that we only have the 3 games to compare to and none of the real thing, but we appear to lack the real intensity, the win at all costs belief and willingness to push that extra step that teams like Geelong and Hawthorn have. Without this 'killer instinct', the hyper competitiveness that guys like Silvagni used to have, we will not be able to beat the favourites. We just don't win enough 1 on 1 battles around the field, especially when it counts; our key forward and key defenders in particular.

(5)   Fitness:
Late last year when Cordy left and Buttifant came in, the word around was that we were working on our ability to run out games. This was something that was really noticeable when Cordy started. teams feared our ability to come back in the last quarter.
However, in recent times we appear to run out of gas and rarely score more than our opposition in the last stanza. We managed it a couple of times towards the end of last season and it really stuck out. Not only did we come back to win, but it gave our team a of of confidence and momentum leading in to the next week.
So, with this as our goal, it appears we have improved in no way. We have been overrun in the last quarter in 2 of the 3 games and we have been unable to overcome a tiring opponent in the 3rd. The Dogs were definitely losing momentum, yet were unable to bridge the gap.
That is really bad.

(6)   X Factor & Kicking for goal:
Back in the day we had a lot of players who really had x - factor and who could take the spectacular mark or get the miracle goal that could kick start the lineup. We seem to be lacking that at the moment.
Our kicking for goals appears quite pedestrian, especially with Waite and Casboult. There is no longer and Eddie Betts to make a goal out of nothing. Nor is there the Fev who can pull out a mark and kick a goal from almost anywhere.
I am hoping that Daisy Thomas can make an improvement in this area as he gets his form and fitness back, but he can't do it alone. We need someone who can really lift and lift the side with him.
Our goal kicking is also suspect under pressure. We have a lot of guys who miss clutch goals. Kreuzer, once one of the best shots at goal, has scored 1 in every 3 attempts in the last couple of years. Waite and Casboult have been known to miss from close range. Our former Captain is one of our worst offenders. he used to be able to make goals out of nothing at the Weagles, but now he misses 3 out of 4 shots.

So, to answer my original questions:
[1]   Our chances do not look good, as a number of teams appear to be very much on the rise. Our better players are one year older and we appear to be a mid round team at best.
[2]   We do not appear to have improved significantly in the areas we really needed to. Our forward line and key defensive posts look suspect and we appear deficient int he centre square.
[3]   While our kids look a little better at this point than last year, they do not appear as yet to be the answers to our prayers.

I will be heading to Etihad next weekend with a lot of foreboding. I'll be shouting my guts out and willing us to do well. But my expectations at this point are low. I really hate that.
Live Long and Prosper!

Re: What have we learnt from this preseason?

Reply #1 –
Whilst CRASH is fossicking about for his meds...

As I mentioned previously, like the CRASHmeister, I am used to being optimistic at this time of year - there's been something to hang an optimistic hat on. Oh, except for that recent pre-season under Ratts where we looked rubbish and the season ended up following suit.

We've had brilliant pre-seasons in the past decade and still managed to not continue on (even two pre-season premierships which were followed by seasons that pioneered new levels of embarrassment for the club).

For the first time... ever, I think... I'm not optimistic about this season and pray that I am shocked and surprised and so wrong I begin to question my eyesight.

I do see a side that is playing hard and strong. The attitude and commitment looks great. But we look inept and incapable of actually over powering another side. We still seem fragile... and that is the first thing that I have learnt from this pre-season. We still seem fragile in terms of ruthlessly grabbing the ascendancy, keeping it and even extending up it.

And the other thing I have learnt from this pre-season... we still rely too much on too few. Top sides win when missing stars as it is ingrained in their culture. I fear our culture has more years to go to be truly strong, and that we do not have the personnel to deliver significant success hence more years of serious culling at season's end to get the right blokes into the place. We're still making excuses for Kreuzer, Rowe, Casboult, Lucas, Warnock, Watson, Bootsma, Waite... we justify and rationalise their inadequate efforts. And that just should not be happening.

Now I'm going to find my anti-depressants. Wanna share, CRASHmeister??
Only our ruthless best, from Board to bootstudders will get us no. 17

Re: What have we learnt from this preseason?

Reply #2 –
To offer a different point of view....
Lets look at things we can be positive about.

#1 - Daisy Thomas.
Firstly, he is playing. Some suggested his ankle would see his career over.
Secondly, he is playing...well. From what i saw of him after the Adelaide match, i've just about got a new favourite player.
Thirdly, he is leading. Both with his actions and with words out on the field and on the track.

#2 - Andrejs Everitt
Great pickup, playing well, adds flexibility, versatility and class.
Perhaps his biggest attribute is in combination with...

#3 - Matthew Watson
Seems to have kicked it up a notch and becoming more confident in his abilities. We desperately need big blokes to stand up and he (and Andrejs) appear to be doing that which leads me to...

#4 - Lachie Henderson
With Andrejs and Watson stepping up it allows us to swing Lachie around more often and not have to worry too much about leaving a gaping hole at one end of the ground.


Andrejs can play up forward and kick goals, meaning Hendo doesn't have too.
Andrejs can play down back meaning Watson and Jamo get some extra help from him coming 3rd man up, and allowing Hendo to play forward.

In theory, if the above talls hold up, we can make a big improvement on last year.

Re: What have we learnt from this preseason?

Reply #3 –
Quote from: kruddler – on
To offer a different point of view....
Lets look at things we can be positive about.

#1 - Daisy Thomas.
Firstly, he is playing. Some suggested his ankle would see his career over.
Secondly, he is playing...well. From what i saw of him after the Adelaide match, i've just about got a new favourite player.
Thirdly, he is leading. Both with his actions and with words out on the field and on the track.

#2 - Andrejs Everitt
Great pickup, playing well, adds flexibility, versatility and class.
Perhaps his biggest attribute is in combination with...

#3 - Matthew Watson
Seems to have kicked it up a notch and becoming more confident in his abilities. We desperately need big blokes to stand up and he (and Andrejs) appear to be doing that which leads me to...

#4 - Lachie Henderson
With Andrejs and Watson stepping up it allows us to swing Lachie around more often and not have to worry too much about leaving a gaping hole at one end of the ground.


Andrejs can play up forward and kick goals, meaning Hendo doesn't have too.
Andrejs can play down back meaning Watson and Jamo get some extra help from him coming 3rd man up, and allowing Hendo to play forward.

In theory, if the above talls hold up, we can make a big improvement on last year.
Actually, Krud, you really have found one things that really does look promising for the year: the improvement involved by the 4 guys mentioned above.
[1] Thomas looks to be an excellent pickup, given that he is still far from form and fitness. I am looking forward to seeing him in action, as he has some of the X factor that we need.
[2] Everitt: I am not quite as convinced as you yet, but he is doing at least as well as he did when he started at Sydney. If he can find the form he had late last year, and it looks likely, we have made a great pickup with him.
[3] Watson: I can only hope he can continue, as he has shown he could be an answer. Certainly, his playing well would make our lineup more unpredictable, as it would release Henderson and/or Everitt while keeping a key forward under control.
[4] Hendo: fitness is the thing that worries me about him. He is important to us and could be the missing piece of the puzzle. But he needs to be 100 % fit and he is weeks away from that.
Live Long and Prosper!

Re: What have we learnt from this preseason?

Reply #4 –
Quote
[2] Everitt: I am not quite as convinced as you yet, but he is doing at least as well as he did when he started at Sydney. If he can find the form he had late last year, and it looks likely, we have made a great pickup with him.

Will be a gun imo.

Biggie issue for me is when will Matt Kreuzer start to deliver something a #1 draft pick should deliver....?

Another season of 'he would have/could have but for injuries'.... and I would look at trading him.

25 in May and 100 games under his belt now - he needs to become a Mike Sheehan top 20 list player.....

Time for Special K to live up to his moniker?

Finals, then 4 in a row!

Re: What have we learnt from this preseason?

Reply #5 –
I've learnt why Mick went after Thomas and, to a lesser extent Everitt.

The kid just loves playing football.
You can fool some of the people some of the time.......................................

Re: What have we learnt from this preseason?

Reply #6 –
@Baggers

That list of yours................. Kreuzer, Rowe, Casboult, Lucas, Warnock, Watson, Bootsma, Waite. probably identifies our next clear out unless things change this year.

Kreuz and Lucas - potential trades.
Rowe & Casboult - delists.
Waite - retires.
Watson - possible trade, but I think he'll be OK.
Boots - steak knife.

They have it all to do this year.
Reality always wins in the end.

Re: What have we learnt from this preseason?

Reply #7 –
Quote from: kruddler – on
#3 - Matthew Watson
Seems to have kicked it up a notch and becoming more confident in his abilities. We desperately need big blokes to stand up and he (and Andrejs) appear to be doing that which leads me to...

He desperately needs 5 exceptionally reliable back man working with him. No speculative players, no maybes. Jammo, Touy, Walker, Simpson, Henderson.   No Scotland, no Buckley, No Yarran, no Everitt (further up the ground).

Watson can work........if.

Re: What have we learnt from this preseason?

Reply #10 –
Quote from: cookie2 – on
Quote from: townsendcalling – on
Quote from: cookie2 – on

Boots - steak knife.


He will not be playing Northern Blues firsts by the end of the year.

Pen knife then?  ;D

Bamboo skewer maybe.

I don't think we know any more than we already did. I expect we may start slow again this year and maybe finish hard but maybe not. I'll take each win and look for improvement in players and the team as a whole and hope that we look like there's a tilt next year.

Re: What have we learnt from this preseason?

Reply #11 –
MM said it was a marathon, but winners don't start at the back of the pack.
"Ruck, ruck, ruck, ruck ....... Ruck, ruck, ruck, ruck"

Re: What have we learnt from this preseason?

Reply #12 –
Quote from: flyboy77 – on
Quote
[2] Everitt: I am not quite as convinced as you yet, but he is doing at least as well as he did when he started at Sydney. If he can find the form he had late last year, and it looks likely, we have made a great pickup with him.

Will be a gun imo.

Biggie issue for me is when will Matt Kreuzer start to deliver something a #1 draft pick should deliver....?

Another season of 'he would have/could have but for injuries'.... and I would look at trading him.

25 in May and 100 games under his belt now - he needs to become a Mike Sheehan top 20 list player.....

Time for Special K to live up to his moniker?

x 2

Re: What have we learnt from this preseason?

Reply #13 –
Quote from: townsendcalling – on
Quote from: kruddler – on
#3 - Matthew Watson
Seems to have kicked it up a notch and becoming more confident in his abilities. We desperately need big blokes to stand up and he (and Andrejs) appear to be doing that which leads me to...

He desperately needs 5 exceptionally reliable back man working with him. No speculative players, no maybes. Jammo, Touy, Walker, Simpson, Henderson.   No Scotland, no Buckley, No Yarran, no Everitt (further up the ground).

Watson can work........if.

Ideally, i reckon the back 6 would look something like this.

Simpson Jamison Tuohy
Walker Watson xxxx

Now xxxx would depend on who we were playing against and what kind of setup they had. If they had an extra tall we could use McInness/Everitt....or Hendo/Waite if we get desperate.
If they had an extra small it could be Gibbs/Buckley/Curnow/Scotland/Carrazzo who would all change through the middle at stages too.

If Watson can prove himself to be reliable at CHB, then he could be THE most important player on our list when it comes to structures. Without him, we have to completely alter our lineup.

Re: What have we learnt from this preseason?

Reply #14 –
We all keep hanging it on Kruezer but the truth is he is not a forward,he is better than warnock as warnock once the tap is is over so is he,in general play he is is a goal post.I believe we have to have Kruezer in the ruck and cas as the back up as even though he is not performing how we want him to at least he crashes packs and does gra one every now and then.And as for he's kicking I'd rather have a bloke that has a shot and misses than someone like warnock that does not even have a shot.You cannot rest warnock in the forward line so if he goes to the bench it means you are a rotation down,and if he is having a stinker which is more often than not it really stuffs you up .WArnock is not a footballers a.......e and should not be in the side.Its time we played the likes of cas and other young blokes because if we go back to what we have had over the last couple of years we will end up a so so team again.
Play  crips ,play cas play Watson play bell play grahamplay menzel owhat have we got to loose.Put walker in the forward line play Judd of the bench play Gibbs I the center and if it doesn't work at least you have tried to step it up.The past is finished its time for the future .
like it or not at least it's my opinion