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Topic: AFL 2024 Elimination Final 1 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Brisbane (Read 6333 times) previous topic - next topic
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Re: AFL 2024 Elimination Final 1 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Brisbane

Reply #285
Off topic a bit -
I’ve actually noticed this finals series that the umpires are now calling the game correctly, and in line with supporters and communities expectation.
So it’s interesting that they actually do know how to call the game.

Good call - umpires have been fantastic back end of year

Re: AFL 2024 Elimination Final 1 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Brisbane

Reply #286
Overall it didn't matter, but it was when we had all the momentum and would've continued that. Instead it halted it.

Not sure how you can say he didn't control it.
It never hit the ground. Nobody else touched it. Its a mark.

To suggest that had that mark been paid we would have continued with the momentum and possibly won the game, is just too much of a stretch for me. You might be right, we'll never know. But it sure did look like Brisvegas were by far the better side.
Only our ruthless best, from Board to bootstudders will get us no. 17

Re: AFL 2024 Elimination Final 1 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Brisbane

Reply #287
To suggest that had that mark been paid we would have continued with the momentum and possibly won the game, is just too much of a stretch for me. You might be right, we'll never know. But it sure did look like Brisvegas were by far the better side.
I don't think I ever said we'd win the game.
In fact the opposite.
I said overall it probably didn't matter.....to the result.
Just saying it was at an important time where we had the momentum and we lost it at that point.

Re: AFL 2024 Elimination Final 1 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Brisbane

Reply #288
None of the umpiring has an effect of the result in such a thorough shellacking, the umpiring is generally the same for both sides.

But, it does change the spectacle for fans and viewers, which seems to be the point most media commentary is missing completely.

No doubt, that if there is even a slight differential in a close game, a close game being the point of difference, that the umpires can influence the result.

"Ruck, ruck, ruck, ruck ....... Ruck, ruck, ruck, ruck"

Re: AFL 2024 Elimination Final 1 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Brisbane

Reply #289
Here are my notes from the I50 I counted (by I50 I mean every time the ball cross the 50m line in our fwd half)
Q1   I50   Pitto spilled mark
Q1   I50   Kemp kick in to Big O who Int marks
Q1   I50   Cripps kick in to Big O who Int marks
Q1   I50   Acres kicks a grubber, TO straigh back out. First I50 in 8 min
Q1   I50   Kennedy kick in, H drops the mark,  Williams gathers from Cripps, snaps across the face OOB
Q1   I50   Cripps kicks in,  gathered and cleared by Bris def
Q1   I50   Hewett kicks in, Motlop fumbles, Wiliams to H who is  tackled drops ball, Bris clear
Q1   I50   Acres kicks in, Andrews intercepts and 50m pen
   Qtr time   0.0.0
Q2   I50   Gov kicks in, Hewett gathers snaps short intercepted
Q2   I50   Acres to H, drops the mark, Kemp gathers
Q2   I50   Hewett I50 Walsh, H and Kennedy get in each others way, Kennedy marks gives to H who snaps ootf misses by 20m
Q2   I50   Hew I50 kemp gathers snaps acrros the face  ootf
Q2   I50   Cowan kicks in, 35 for Bris interecpts ( H out pointed)
Q2   I50   Acres from a passageof play  I50, kicks over the head of Williams and goes OOB.Throw in, Pitto fumbes Bris take it away
Q2   I50   Lij I50 from a stoppage,  H flies drops the mark, Zorko gathers and clears to Bris player
Q2   I50   Acres from a free for a trip I50, punched down to ground, Bris gathers and clears
Q2   I50   From a Cent Clear, Doc gathers, kicks I50 looking for Durdin, Z\orko intercepts
Q2   I50   Cerra i50 from the stoppage, Fantasia runs on, Zorko clears out
Q2   I50   Cripps free kick on the wing, kicks I50, comes straight out again
Q2   I50   Williams kicks i50 to 2 Bris defenders, ball spills, Durdin gathers, gives to Cripps for a goal
    3m51s to go in the 2nd qtr   1.0.6

Interesting reading. I appreciate that the players noted are not the only ones in the area but they are the ones involved.
Of the 20 I50's listed, only two of our "high pressure small forwards" are mentioned in the moments. And - they only feature once or twice each. Harry and Kempy (plus others) couldn't hold their marks or fumbled which means that the ball comes to ground on most occasions.

Where were the small forwards? Let's call it - 'missing'. And there goes the offensive pressure - turnover and goal to Brisbane!

This isn't isolated to this game. As many have bemoaned previously.

Some on this website suggest that these smalls, such as Durdin and Motlop should be cut some slack because of injury and 'lack of a pre-season'. Okay. Let's go with those excuses and cut them some slack. They are both contracted until the end of 2025? Let's see how they go next season.

Durdin shouldn't have played due to his current injury. We all seem to agree on this.

Motlop seemed to be injury free for this game and the previous ones. His going missing is more between the ears IMHO.

Fantasia must have some other roles that we are not across....who knows??

Or, we can explore the options that might present now to make list changes.

I remain highly sceptical of their current value on the list. Can and must do better.

Their EF was a very strong indicator of their current value.

Make the changes.


Re: AFL 2024 Elimination Final 1 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Brisbane

Reply #290
I think generics of small forward roles is a problem.

If you look at how each player covers the ground it tells a different story.

Motlop for example spent 90% of his time in defensive half and 10% forward half so you can blame him for not being able to crumb, but not when he wasn't there.

Durdin by contrast spent 100% of his time forward half.  So he would have struggled with the ball getting to his end of the ground same as the key forwards. In marking contests was he trying to get to the feet?  Out the back?  Stretching the opposition defense?  None of that really.  Maybe just a decoy everyone ignored.

Fantasia spent his role 40% in defensive half and 60% forward. 

To me this is more an example of their individual work rate and why putting them in the same boat isn't fair.

This is according to the heat maps.  So what happened?

Was motlop burning his chips defensively and not working offensively?
Did motlop follow his man back too much?

Was durdin moonlighting as a full forward?
Or was he stuck forward with the others (not sure where he was for our 56 forward entries but thats a different story.

Was fantasia working up and down or used as a bit of a spare parts man?

All in all our MC failed in one respect.  Without owies there Kennedy should have played his role.   Owies isn't quick, Kennedy is a better mark and probably our third best finisher if not fourth.

"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: AFL 2024 Elimination Final 1 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Brisbane

Reply #291


If you look at how each player covers the ground it tells a different story.



This is according to the heat maps.  So what happened?

Heat maps show where players had disposals, not where they were running.

In fact, 90% of Motlop’s disposals were in defence, 40% of Fantasia’s were in defence and all four of Durdin’s disposals were in the forward line.  You’d have to look at the GPS data to see how much time they spent in attack and defence.

Putting that to one side, your point about them having different roles is correct.  Fantasia generally has the link up role that Cottrell does so well and he had a defensive role on Zorko for some time.  Motlop usually gets back in defence but Durdin rarely goes beyond the wing.

I don’t know if the distance covered stats are published anywhere but I suspect that they would show considerable variation.
“Why don’t you knock it off with them negative waves? Why don’t you dig how beautiful it is out here? Why don’t you say something righteous and hopeful for a change?”  Oddball

Re: AFL 2024 Elimination Final 1 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Brisbane

Reply #292
Heat maps show where players had disposals, not where they were running.

In fact, 90% of Motlop’s disposals were in defence, 40% of Fantasia’s were in defence and all four of Durdin’s disposals were in the forward line.  You’d have to look at the GPS data to see how much time they spent in attack and defence.

Putting that to one side, your point about them having different roles is correct.  Fantasia generally has the link up role that Cottrell does so well and he had a defensive role on Zorko for some time.  Motlop usually gets back in defence but Durdin rarely goes beyond the wing.

I don’t know if the distance covered stats are published anywhere but I suspect that they would show considerable variation.

Agree. You have to know exactly what a player’s role is in order to make criticism of how well he’s performing it. Skills execution is obvious on the other hand.
Reality always wins in the end.

Re: AFL 2024 Elimination Final 1 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Brisbane

Reply #293
Agree. You have to know exactly what a player’s role is in order to make criticism of how well he’s performing it. Skills execution is obvious on the other hand.

For me it was Motlops fumbles that struck a cord with me.
2017-16th
2018-Wooden Spoon
2019-16th
2020-dare to dream? 11th is better than last I suppose
2021-Pi$$ or get off the pot
2022- Real Deal or more of the same? 0.6%
2023- "Raise the Standard" - M. Voss Another year wasted Bar Set
2024-Back to the drawing boardNo excuses, its time

Re: AFL 2024 Elimination Final 1 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Brisbane

Reply #294
For me it was Motlops fumbles that struck a cord with me.
Yep and he seemed to get caught with the ball a lot.
Reality always wins in the end.

Re: AFL 2024 Elimination Final 1 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Brisbane

Reply #295
Yep and he seemed to get caught with the ball a lot.
Best we just move on from 2024 Cookie.
2017-16th
2018-Wooden Spoon
2019-16th
2020-dare to dream? 11th is better than last I suppose
2021-Pi$$ or get off the pot
2022- Real Deal or more of the same? 0.6%
2023- "Raise the Standard" - M. Voss Another year wasted Bar Set
2024-Back to the drawing boardNo excuses, its time

 

Re: AFL 2024 Elimination Final 1 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Brisbane

Reply #296
At least Motlop gets the ball to fumble it, Durdin keeps his clangars to a minimum by not getting the ball ...

Re: AFL 2024 Elimination Final 1 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Brisbane

Reply #297
At least Motlop gets the ball to fumble it, Durdin keeps his clangars to a minimum by not getting the ball ...
And yet I have a little more faith in Durdin than Motlop but that's not saying much as their bars arent high.
2017-16th
2018-Wooden Spoon
2019-16th
2020-dare to dream? 11th is better than last I suppose
2021-Pi$$ or get off the pot
2022- Real Deal or more of the same? 0.6%
2023- "Raise the Standard" - M. Voss Another year wasted Bar Set
2024-Back to the drawing boardNo excuses, its time

Re: AFL 2024 Elimination Final 1 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Brisbane

Reply #298
And yet I have a little more faith in Durdin than Motlop but that's not saying much as their bars arent high.
I'd be looking at moving on from all our small forwards bar Owies...but they are contracted and no one will trade for them..

Re: AFL 2024 Elimination Final 1 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Brisbane

Reply #299
I'd be looking at moving on from all our small forwards bar Owies...but they are contracted and no one will trade for them..
Agreed but ironically it may be Owies that goes.
Reality always wins in the end.